Our lead form's key event is generate_lead, which fires on the submit click. That inflates the count, because some clicks are validation failures or double submits. Moving the trigger to the thank-you page gives cleaner numbers, but it breaks when people close the tab before the redirect finishes, and a cached page can make it fire unpredictably.
I think the thank-you page is still the right source for anything you bid on or report to a client, since it only fires when the server accepted the lead. Submit-click is fine for diagnosing form UX, just don't mix the two in one report. How do others handle AJAX forms where there's no redirect at all?